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PLEX up to 800M ISK


Plex over 800m ISK

I will just throw this out there – my view on the Plex price.


The Plex price has broken above 800m ISK yet volumes are on the decline.

Worth considering that the supply of Plex is not related to the demand for Plex in the same way that minerals and ships hulls are related, for example.

The demand for Plex is perhaps easier to think about.  The demand is some sort of a function of the growth in the Eve population and the wealth of the Eve Population.  As those increase then the demand for Plex should increase.  So far, so good.

The supply of Plex though is less obvious (or it may be and i am merely missing the point!).

The question i am wrestling with is why does a player want to buy Plex for $15?  Clearly, the answer is that the player wants to buy ISK (or, occasionally spends US$ to dual train etc).

If so, then the more ISK that $15 of Plex creates then presumably the less total US$ the player need spend to buy the total ISK that they require.

For example, if a player wanted to buy $4bn of ISK, today they would need to buy 5 Plex = spending $75.  One year ago, that $4bn of ISK would have required about 7 Plex = $105.

In other words, for a player to achieve a level of ISK then that player need not buy as many Plex today and so the supply of Plex has gone done.

(For now, lets assume that 4bn of ISK today would get the same as 4bn of ISK a year ago).

Hence, we have a situation where the demand for Plex is rising and the supply is falling.  Leads to a self-fulfilling price rise in Plex until one of the demand factors breaks and then we get a self-fulfilling price fall in Plex! The inflation in terms of the dropping value of plex purchased looks to be not be reducing anytime soon.

Of course, someone with a load of Plex could dump on the market and cause a fall, perhaps temporary.

CCP then has a balancing act on their hands – rising inflation leads to more ISK being required by players buying it using Plex (good for CCP, bad for the Plex price).  But rising inflation also leads to more wealth and so a rising demand for Plex (good for the Plex price).  Which will win, not clear.

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